Boring Future?!

Boring smile? Not yet, not yet…

Well, well, well, here is my favorite topic for the last year or so that I am thinking over and it’s now time to share the thoughts and see if there is any rationality to this.

Let’s go through a series of assumptions and simple logical conclusions to arrive at the final destination: boring future! And we might arrive at it sooner than we thought.

As we are getting more and more tech developed and have many gadgets caring with us all the time, one of the very useful one (and the scariest at the same time) is the GPS modules. We have it in our cars in the navigation systems, we have it in our mobile phones now. And since I am up for the solution of having the “mobile phone” integrated into the human body sooner or later (I have a bet it will happen by 2015), there will be a gps module integrated into the body as well, either along with the phone or separately. Sure it will be a great way for any person to instantly know where he/she is and where/how to get get somewhere from point A to point B with some fun along the way. That’s a good part.

Now, talking about the “side effects”… since we can see that later on every human will be having his own chip implanted into the body that has at least the gps module, it will be a task completed for the government to finally have the full systems in place to follow and know everything about any single person at any given moment. Yes, there is a huge positive side of it since the most important part of it will be focused on the prevention of crime! Yes, there will be almost no crime or any crime would be very quickly solved and the initiator will be found and prosecuted. That’s great! No questions asked.

However, along with that great feature, we’ll have the society that will be controlled fully (well, at least monitored) by the government or higher agencies, and every single “kinda wrong” move from a person will be punished, like even being late for work for couple minutes or crossing the street at red light. That will lead the whole society behaving perfectly at some time after the full monitoring would be initiated and performed along with the execution of punishment.

Would people have fun in such a society? No… every single move will be monitored and nobody will have any willingness to do anything even slightly off the rules written by the “government” on how people should move around and do things on the planet. And the society will become dull like robots with its creativity lost forever.

Do we want such a boring future? Not me, not me…

Nevertheless, assumption is that such a verge of the society will happen by 2020.

future social networks integration

There is a discussion going on in LinkedIn that was started by my question on future integration among social networks, and you can check it out at http://www.linkedin.com/answers/technology/blogging/TCH_BLG/584403-22461370

Here is the question itself and you can see the replies at the link above. More details will be added to this article later on when the discussion is over and we would have some overall feeling about the matter.

What’s your opinion on the future integration of all the social networks available? Right now we can see some crossing between status’ updated from one social network across all the rest (like recent twitter addition to LinkedIn). So, what is going to happen later on if we take into account that more and more integration is on its way? Is it all going to merge into the one and only social network or we’ll still have some differentiation? Will the social networking survive in the future or disappear in the cloud of advanced civilization?

Clarification:

Are we going to see the integration into just one network rather than huge mash up among all the networks. I see it very ineffective to have multiple networks, that’s for sure. On the other hand, we can’t have a monopoly and have just Facebook with LinkedIn and that’s it. It would not be allowed by the economic situations and the whole market.

Also, another interesting concept that might have a viable concept is that we could get into the total disappearing of social networking. By that I mean the times when there was no global networking and there was only micro networking among a tribe members or so. And once we get into the very global networking like right now, we might face the information overloading and users might just get away from the networking the way we use it now. One item to consider is that when we have way too many tweets to go through or scan, we don’t pay much attention and the tweets become kind of useless versus the situation when we receive just a couple tweets a day – that way we pay much more attention the quality of the networking becomes high. So, the question is about having the networking just for the hack of it or for the real use. If there is a real reason and need, then why someone follows more than 1,000 users on Twitter?? I bet that user does not pay much attention in this case to received tweets or just pays attention to some important users he really wants to follow. Then again, why did he subscribe for the tons of useless users? It’s not about the idea that micro blogging is useless (hey, I use it myself) but about the fact of the quality of the network! I am afraid the quality of the networking becomes very poor… and one day it might destroy the very nature of the social networking on the global level as it started recently.

I have another article to write up about the “boring” future that we might face very soon, and it correlates much with this discussion of future social networking as well.

singularity? not yet… not yet…

Would like to share some thoughts on singularity. Below is my recent post (reply) to a question on LinkedIn:

Hi Javed and All,

Well, it looks like we have to agree with all previous answers since the most important factor is the definition of Singularity. And then again, we have to look deeper into the issue since singularity is not the only term used for such future technological advances.

Overall, sure we are not on the verge of Singularity or any other seriously advanced changes. However, later on, years ahead, we might be changing the view of it and be kinda on such a verge.

Yes, the technology development in humanity has two opposite theory: 1. It sure looks like the technology is developing very fast right now and it’s not linear. So, we can see huge acceleration making changes fast. 2. On the other hand, I have to agree with Brian’s answer and information that we are not even close to a tiny bit of discovering our Universe potential in any way of humanity or technology or the Universe itself.

So, with this duality of very well developed technology now and not really developed at all taking into account the global issues and discoveries in the future, we can’t really say where we are right now. The whole humanity rising in the Universe looks like a tiny peak on the time line of the Universe’s life span. Unfortunately (or fortunately), humanity on Earth does not matter to the whole Universe as a major influence factor. We sure have some potential of changing the world as we know it by just giving out some positive results to the whole Universe and being just another “cell” out there making the bigger thing compiling all the matter… just like a single neural cell in our brain network. So, we might be a cell in the Universe brain.

Anyhow, coming back to the being on the verge of singularity or other very well developed technologies that might change our own human being, it might be viewed as the situation at any particular point and its thinking of the future. Meaning that right now we don’t think we are on the verge of singularity and kinda nearing it, but later on, say in 50 years, we would again saying that we are not on the verge of singularity since its meaning and the definition will already be changed and we’ll be looking for even more advancement. I guess, right now, any human looks like a “singular” person to people living in stone age. Imagine those stone age people meeting our current human with all the cell phones, laptops with 3G communications, bluetooth, speaking with others on the other side of the planet without any visible links or actual contact. They would think of us at least like cyborgs or any other term closely related to singularity. And we can prolong such an interpretation to our own future.

Taking everything into account, it could be possible to make an assumption that the major factor of being on the verge of singularity depends on the overall timeline of humanity or the whole Universe, and what it stands for at any given moment.

There is a very informative free online digital magazine published that discusses recent developments in the area of singularity. Check it out at http://hplusmagazine.com/

You are also very welcome to check out my own publishing discussing the future in relation to technology at http://maxpanfilov.wordpress.com/

Best of all and thanks for sharing the info and links!

Cheers,
Max.

Well, let’s see. I bet that we reach the singularity phase, as we understand this term and possibilities right now, in about 100 years. So, let’s set it for the 2100 and see if it works out as we anticipate it. Also hoping that we will see it in our lifetime since the longevity will be prolonged by our discoveries ;)

energoinformatics – a blend of energy and information

Would like to share some thoughts on the blend of energy and information in the future. Below is my recent post (reply) to a question on LinkedIn:

Hi All,

Not sure about the UK market in IT industry but I can see the future trend in the overall IT industry worldwide. I am positive that IT will be merging with Energy. Yes, it is long time and kinda futuristic expectations, but still the very future holds the merge of IT and Energy industries in terms of exchange of the informational flow with energy field. This view is supported by the idea that right now the information is distributed with the help of energy. It’s a fact. Now, my assumption (guess I am not alone) is that the opposite is also possible: the energy can be transferred with the help of information. That comes to the idea that information is equal to energy and they can both travel with the help of each other transferring the energy and information back and force to each other. This is very close to the behavior of the soliton. Well, I guess I got too much into the scientific stuff but still think that it applies to the general development of IT industry and what future holds for us in this area: the merger of IT and energy industries. Much like NBIC (nano bio info cognitive) technology. However, I suppose the energy will be another majority player in this equation along with info.

Well, I understand there is no straight answer to the current status of IT industry but if we can see somehow even a glimpse of the future, we can go to the right direction now comparing to the current industry.

Cheers,

Max.

So, overall, in the future, information will be transferred and sent without any additional external energy applied. It will be energy independent and will be traveling with the help of its own energy. A lot of research and development needs to be performed in this area but ultimately I see this concept emerging to some real applications.

When can we expect first prototypes of such a technology? Let’s bet on 2050.

new pages: resources, investment

Just to let you know that two more pages are added.

Resources: you’ll be able to find bookmarks to the most interesting and useful sites on the Internet related to the topics discussed in this blog.

Investment: tracking a stock portfolio targeted at the most promising companies in the future. Feel free to use it in your own stock analysis and let’s see how it performs over a long-term period of time.

cell phone vs. a case of wine

About couple months ago I had a bet with one of my friends that by 2015 humans will be using the “cell phones” (or whatever it is going to be at that time) that are fully integrated with our bodies and there will be nothing external outside of our bodies that represent the communications device.

Essentially, cell phone modules will become so small and so efficient that it will be like a microchip implanted in our body wherever you want (hm, well, there are some places you do really want it to vibrate but let’s skip this feature for now ;)). And the dialing/answering will be controlled directly by our minds just like in the recent developments of scientists trying to make pieces move around with the power of a thought getting the signals off our brains.

Eventually, there are going to be some kind of a social networking with such infrastructure where you can see a crowd gathering in one place just because they have similar interests and event posted in their “minded phone”. Communication will become more flawless and smooth in terms of our real needs in the future. Spam? Oh well… spamming our brains directly freaks me out!

So, we have a real bet setup for the 2015. If there is a such a system deployed even for not mass market use, I win, if not, I loose. And I win/loose a case of Riesling delivered to Kiev by my own hands (or my friend’s hands in case I win) from one of the producers in Europe by real visit to that origin. Well, in any case I’ll win – I get a case of wine or I get to visit some interesting places to bring that wine :) However, the bet is bet and it is on.

energy cell

Continuing from the previous post of charging a car, let’s discuss the future energy modules that we are going to use in our everyday gadgets like cell phones, notebooks, and others.

There is still a big possibility to use solar power with much more efficiency. Right now in regular solar cell modules, there is an almost record converting efficiency close to only 20%. Are you kidding me?! Is there anybody who seriously thinks that it is a max that we can get from the solar beams? Well, recently there were several claims of reaching the 40% in a huge commercial type solar panel that takes up lots of space in manufacturing facility. There is also a recent claim from Sharp of getting close to 36% conversion in solar cell using the triple-junction compound based on InGaAs (indium gallium arsenide). However, still, we have an absolute record of only 43% of converting efficiency in solar systems. That’s way too low. Well, yes, it’s kinda record breaking for now but there is a possibility that we can get close to 90% sometime in the future using special programmable matter’s lattice.

In addition to getting higher on the conversion efficiency, there are many other ways to integrating more technologies into the power systems, like mentioned above the programmable lattice. We are now only in the beginning of era that uses the fixed matter lattice. Later on, the scientists will be able to modify the lattice structure to adapt the matter to a new properties.

Now let’s try to incorporate the laser technology into the modifiable ultra high solar cell. Imagine that modified matter of solar cell is being hit by the high powered laser with the concentrated light beam with appropriate properties that sets off the building up of the power generating process like in nuclear systems. This way, the regular (well, at that time in the future it is going to be regular, not now) solar cell of one square centimeter could generate lots of energy that can support our everyday gadgets.

Combining all those technologies and developments, we would be able to setup the charging systems for our gadgets the following way: in our mobile phones or laptops we will have a receiver (like infrared one sometimes back in our laptops) that will act as a modified solar cell. Once we are low on the charge, once a week or so by that time, we just bring the gadget close to the charging station (like a power socket, available everywhere in our houses later on) facing the receiver portion of the gadget and getting a quick super charge shot by the charging station/module, which will be just a high powered laser beam hitting the modified solar cell setting off the energy release into the storage of the device.

And that’s only three technologies we’ve combined together to setup such a charging infrastructure: solar power, modifiable matter’s lattice, and laser beaming. Assuming there will be more appropriate technologies that could add on to the overall “charge shot” system, we might see the quick progress in such a system. When is it going to be ready on the mass market? What’s your opinion? I say 2025!

See you in the future… or now!

next themes

You can expect that next themes we are going to explore will include energy, communications, social networking, and economy. And later on we’ll be checking all other industries and in between. If you have any suggestions, please feel free to drop a line here.

charging a car

Let’s discuss the future of the cars and in particular the way we fuel those babies now and what will happen to the fuel tank in the future.

Sneak peek: [What's the forecast for the charging systems for electric vehicles in the nearest future? There will be no charging at all!]

Right now, worldwide, the majority of cars are driven with regular gasoline. That’s the market we have right now and it’s been like that for [insert your answer] years. I’d say it’s not a very long period in terms of humanity. Well, the cars are not that old anyhow comparing to the whole humanity and even the technological era.

Now, the electric cars are coming. It’s been about 10 or so years ago that the term of some kind of electric cars came into use. Correct me if I’m wrong. However, the actual prototypes or the makes of electric cars started with hybrid versions, which I think is a great concept. And it was about 5 years ago that we started seeing hybrids on the roads. Very rarely, but still. Nowadays, we can see hybrids more often and it is already getting some piece of market. But hold on, this year we’ve seen big developments on actual electric cars, without any hybrid version, with the only engine being the electric one. And even though there are only few those electric vehicles (ev) on the roads right now, we can see them coming hard and quick.

As we now talk about pure ev, let’s come to the very nature of this post, which is how the ev is charged now and what’s gonna happen to it in the future. As of this moment, there are two ways of getting charged so you can drive along when you are going on close to empty: 1) get charged from the charging point; 2) get your depleted battery exchanged for the fully charged one at the charging station. First option has some drawbacks so far, and it is the charging time. If you have your own house and can plugin your ev car overnight into the regular power grid just like a microwave, it’s fine. It will be fully charged by the morning and you can drive away to your office (hope the term “office” in the future will still exist – more posts about it later). However, what are you gonna be doing if you need to drive a long distance, lets say from New York City to Boston. In this case, you would be charging on the way just like we do right now with regular cars/fuel but the time to fully charge the battery will take you at least about 20 minutes. And if you would like to have a long battery life, you would not be charging fast with commercial 380V. So, overall, it takes much more time than right now with usual gasoline. With the second option of exchanging the battery at the station for the newly fully charged one, it takes only couple minutes for the exchange operation. The system for that could be just as a regular process like prepaid service. Let’s not get into the discussion of the system and how it might work or not. The point is a bit different that needs to be outlined. And personally, I don’t believe that the system of the battery exchange will actually work in terms of economy because of lots of capital needed to be spent for the companies to support such battery overload. Moreover, I believe that the batteries’ technologies will be developing fast and the charging will also be a fast one without any health risk to the battery.

That’s the story about charging right now, when we don’t have mature market of ev at all.

What’s the forecast for the charging systems for ev in the nearest future? There will be no charging at all!

Do you charge the battery in your watch nowadays?? No. You just simply exchange it every year or so.

Do you charge your laptop? Yes. And couple years ago it was usual that the max length of the charge could last for about two hours. Well, what’s today with laptops? Batteries are now capable of holding you without the recharge for 8 to 12 hours. And that’s in the middle class of the laptop’s price range. I’m talking about the Acer’s Timeline series and Asus’ UL lineup. Yes, sure, the processors of the laptops are getting ULV (ultra low voltage) as well sucking up less power for the same operations and it helps batteries to last longer as well. Nevertheless, batteries are getting better anyhow. So, in the very nearest future, in a year or two (well, if you take into account current financial climate of the economy and its slowdown, it might be two-three years from now), we’ll be having laptops and every kind of cell phone capable of holding up to several days to a week without charging a battery. And later on, we’ll just swap a battery once a year in a laptop without even charging it once… just like in a watch we do now.

And if you take into account fast developing nature of technologies, the same will be happening to the batteries in ev. Eventually, we’ll have batteries capable of powering up the electric vehicles for a year of use without a single charge. The engine and energy developments at the same time will be helping out draw much less power from the battery as well, which in turn makes a great synergy with new batteries making its life without a charge longer. And yes, charging stations and all the systems will become obsolete. Instead of those charging/gasoline stations there are going to be just service centers.

The summary: the future of electric vehicle and its charging will have… no charging. Just the vehicle that needs to drive up to a station once a year to swap the battery section (or the energy system – but that’s going to be explored in future posts). When will we see such a technology? I say in 2030…

Anyone has a different opinion about the issue? Please, feel free to comment and add your thoughts on this particular future technology.